George — I agree that an ‘updateable’ book would be fascinating, but I can see conspiracy theorists the world over flinching at the thought of revisionist history!

Of course, the idea of being able to fix all those typos would be great

Personally, I think it’s going to be a mix of a better educated public – how many people on the street even consider ebooks when they think of something to read? – and the penetration of convergence devices. I’m not interested in lugging ANOTHER thing around with me, but am more than happy to read ebooks on my 3G phone. That way, I always have something to read when I’m waiting for the train…

I’m curious, for example, about what mischief Penguin are up to over here:
http://thepenguinblog.typepad.com/the_penguin_blog/2008/02/non-linear.html

The article about the economics of e-book pricing is fantastic.

Thanks for swinging by the blog.

Your point about convergence is also well made – there’s a discussion about the economics of book/e-book pricing here which gives an interesting perspective: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/media/article3405948.ece

If it was the iPod that tipped it then I would think that’s more an argument in support of exceptional design and how it can provide competitive advantage in the market. Apple have been pursuing a design-led strategy since the iMac and it’s really working for them.

For this reason, of the current crop of e-book readers out there, I think the Kindle is going to come closest to tipping the market, not because of its device but because it will be able to plug its customers into the largest yet library of content, and it has an existing dominant retail/distribution platform to support it.

The only serious challenger to this could surely be iTunes, if Steve Jobs really is fibbing and does actually have plans to put e-book readers in next generation iPhones and iPod Touch.

After all, convergence is here now. Why would I want to spend $300-$900 on a device that only reads books??

Sorry – but I’m with Rob on this one. I believe it will be a technology device that tips people over to the ebook revolution. Yes, lots of factors come into play but the final tipping point will be a mass marketable delivery platform which anyone can use.

Format is important and the device won’t work effectively without it but it is how the format is delivered that will bring the majority of people onboard. Afterall, MP3 existed as a format for almost 10 years before iPod but it took the iPod technology to really drive it to a mass market. It was the ability to deliver it in way that non-technological people could pick it up

“Perhaps it will be the .epub format, I hope so anyway since a reflowable format is going to enable faster uptake of e-books on mobile devices, especially phones.”

Actually, there already are a couple of fairly reflowable format for ebooks – Microsoft LIT – which is designed to work on phones and other mobile devices. Or the more versatile but slightly more clunky to use on multiple devices MobiPocket (I would actually switch to MobiPocket as a reader except for the fact most of books are in LIT format). And some PDFs, depending on how they were created, are reflowable using the mobile version of Acrobat.

I’m not advocating LIT as a format as it only works on Microsoft’s Reader software which is a big drawback but I use it all the time. The Reader program is free and easily downloadable and it works quite well on my PDA (a HP iPaq). I’ve got a library of almost 500 books on a Flash Card and carry it around with me for bus and plane trips.

Then again, I’m an early adopter. The biggest issue with ebooks is the need to regularly click a button, tap the screen or something similar to change the page. I’m building strong thumbs.

But I’m also not the mass market. Ebooks have to be easy to use, and easy to procure and access, before they’ll be as popular as real books. There will be people like me who will adopt new technologies because we’re geeks.

But, until it is as easy to pick up an ebook as it is to buy a book from the newsagent at an airport, people won’t take it up. Which is where the Kindle shines. Its delivery system via Wi-Fi or 3G phone download means that a user can impulse buy content.

As you said, it’s chicken and egg but I still think technology will be the egg from all chickens spring.

Cheers,
Damon