I found something very informative (many things actually) among George Walkley’s notes from the O’Reilly Tools of Change Conference. (I’m annoyed, by the way, that I didn’t stumble on George’s excellent blog earlier but my helpful friend, sf author Marianne de Pierres, recently pointed him out to me and I’m glad she did)
Anyway, I’m glad I read George’s notes because it helps me settle an argument I had with Rob in the car on the way to work this morning. We were arguing vigorously discussing what it is that will make e-books tip. Rob says it’s the device. He pointed to Blue-Ray and said the writing was on the wall way back when Sony shipped Blue-Ray players in Playstation 3 consoles. It wasn’t the retailers and movie studios signing up with Blue-Ray that ultimately did Toshiba in, he argued, it was the fact there were so many Sony players already out in the market that the retailers and movie studios could do little else but follow consumer demand. Fair enough point (or at least, I begrudgingly acknowledge that now) He also pointed to the iPod, now an almost ubiquitous device which has fuelled a billion-dollar market in digital music.
Aha! I cried. But it wasn’t the iPod that tipped digital music, it was the mp3, in other words the format. I argued that e-books will tip when we have a universal file format that publishers are prepared to support and e-book readers are configured to read. Perhaps it will be the .epub format, I hope so anyway since a reflowable format is going to enable faster uptake of e-books on mobile devices, especially phones.
Turns out neither of us were right, as Brent Lewis of Harlequin pointed out in his presentation Digital Strategy and Action at Tools of Change. (Harlequin, by the way, have been quietly setting out being world leaders in e-book publishing since 2005)
Brent said something so profound yet so simple I’m sure it’s the reason many publishers, especially Australian ones, haven’t noticed what they’re missing out on:
“E-books are about benefits not technology.”
He went on to explain what the most desirable benefits are to e-book consumers:
- immediacy
- volume
- portability
- product opportunity
Seems obvious, so why is this so profound? Well, because usually the most profound things always seem obvious when they’re uttered, and then they’re followed by a slap upside the head for not thinking of it earlier. It’s natural to be seduced by the technology when thinking about e-books. There’s a host of sexy devices out there now, even oh-so-naughties matte white ones like the Kindle. There’s a dizzying menu of e-book formats and proportionately astronomical permutation of possible decisions to make about which formats to produce, distribute and market. And underneath it all there’s always the nagging doubt that people don’t really want to read on a screen, do they? (Forgetting of course, the 8-10 hours most of us spend in front a screen everyday already)
The reality is, if we re-orient our thinking away from technology and toward the customer (pretty much marketing 101) we can clear our foggy heads and start thinking about how to create a value-proposition that customers will go for. And that’s what Harlequin have already done. They’ve understood the unique and inherent benefits that e-books offer over print books – immediacy, volume, portability and product opportunity. They’ve also done a good job of understanding who they’re customers are. Romance readers, like a lot of genre fans, are inclined toward community. They’ll make good use of social networks, so eHarlequin.com does too.
The reality is, as it turns out Rob and I were both really arguingconfidently asserting (and refusing to acknowledge we essentially agreed with each other) it will be a set of conditions that tip e-books not a single element. It will be a whole combination of things: device, format, pricing, distribution, volume of content, DRM and many others. Some of these are chicken and egg factors too. But publishers will get there faster if they think about benefits first and technology second.






Kate Eltham is a writer and creative industries professional based in Brisbane, Australia. She is Chief Executive Officer of 
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Hi there,
Sorry – but I’m with Rob on this one. I believe it will be a technology device that tips people over to the ebook revolution. Yes, lots of factors come into play but the final tipping point will be a mass marketable delivery platform which anyone can use.
Format is important and the device won’t work effectively without it but it is how the format is delivered that will bring the majority of people onboard. Afterall, MP3 existed as a format for almost 10 years before iPod but it took the iPod technology to really drive it to a mass market. It was the ability to deliver it in way that non-technological people could pick it up
“Perhaps it will be the .epub format, I hope so anyway since a reflowable format is going to enable faster uptake of e-books on mobile devices, especially phones.”
Actually, there already are a couple of fairly reflowable format for ebooks – Microsoft LIT – which is designed to work on phones and other mobile devices. Or the more versatile but slightly more clunky to use on multiple devices MobiPocket (I would actually switch to MobiPocket as a reader except for the fact most of books are in LIT format). And some PDFs, depending on how they were created, are reflowable using the mobile version of Acrobat.
I’m not advocating LIT as a format as it only works on Microsoft’s Reader software which is a big drawback but I use it all the time. The Reader program is free and easily downloadable and it works quite well on my PDA (a HP iPaq). I’ve got a library of almost 500 books on a Flash Card and carry it around with me for bus and plane trips.
Then again, I’m an early adopter. The biggest issue with ebooks is the need to regularly click a button, tap the screen or something similar to change the page. I’m building strong thumbs.
But I’m also not the mass market. Ebooks have to be easy to use, and easy to procure and access, before they’ll be as popular as real books. There will be people like me who will adopt new technologies because we’re geeks.
But, until it is as easy to pick up an ebook as it is to buy a book from the newsagent at an airport, people won’t take it up. Which is where the Kindle shines. Its delivery system via Wi-Fi or 3G phone download means that a user can impulse buy content.
As you said, it’s chicken and egg but I still think technology will be the egg from all chickens spring.
Cheers,
Damon
Damon: I can’t help but notice that at the time the iPod took off was also the time that people discovered iTunes in large numbers. In other words, was it really a new mp3 player (albeit sexy Apple designed one) that tipped it, or was it Apple doing distribution deals with all the major music labels and making it easy and cheap for people to access music legally online?
If it was the iPod that tipped it then I would think that’s more an argument in support of exceptional design and how it can provide competitive advantage in the market. Apple have been pursuing a design-led strategy since the iMac and it’s really working for them.
For this reason, of the current crop of e-book readers out there, I think the Kindle is going to come closest to tipping the market, not because of its device but because it will be able to plug its customers into the largest yet library of content, and it has an existing dominant retail/distribution platform to support it.
The only serious challenger to this could surely be iTunes, if Steve Jobs really is fibbing and does actually have plans to put e-book readers in next generation iPhones and iPod Touch.
After all, convergence is here now. Why would I want to spend $300-$900 on a device that only reads books??
Kate, thanks for the kind words about the blog. I agree that the tipping point will come when a number of conditions are reached: one that hasn’t been touched on as much as some others is the form factor of the book – something which is touched on here: http://www.locusmag.com/Features/2007/03/cory-doctorow-you-do-like-reading-off.html. Getting away from the idea of the book as a fixed point in time/knowledge is tricky – and brings it into competition with websites, wikis etc – but could represent a compelling advantage for e-books over physical books, which can become out of date in the blink of an eye.
Your point about convergence is also well made – there’s a discussion about the economics of book/e-book pricing here which gives an interesting perspective: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/media/article3405948.ece
George, thanks for the links! I was familiar with Cory’s essay and it’s had me thinking about, and excited about, the possible new forms of writing and storytelling that will emerge (in fact, are already emerging) to exploit the features of the devices we use.
I’m curious, for example, about what mischief Penguin are up to over here:
http://thepenguinblog.typepad.com/the_penguin_blog/2008/02/non-linear.html
The article about the economics of e-book pricing is fantastic.
Thanks for swinging by the blog.
Interesting conversation, Kate, thanks!
George — I agree that an ‘updateable’ book would be fascinating, but I can see conspiracy theorists the world over flinching at the thought of revisionist history!
Of course, the idea of being able to fix all those typos would be great
Personally, I think it’s going to be a mix of a better educated public – how many people on the street even consider ebooks when they think of something to read? – and the penetration of convergence devices. I’m not interested in lugging ANOTHER thing around with me, but am more than happy to read ebooks on my 3G phone. That way, I always have something to read when I’m waiting for the train…